Automotive Sales Forecast

Sales Forecast Memo The objective of this memo is to discuss the omens of travel sales in the US for the month of March 2012. The prediction is to take into account the historic selective information (provided) and current merchandise environment. At first, two approaches of the analytical (quantitative) method were use piteous average and exponential smoothing. The objective of doing so was to masturbate an motif of the prediction found on historic data only. one time that was done, the marketing environment was taken into consideration - to see how it would return the predictions made by the models. In general, there argon a lot of underlying factors to consider when doing a sales direct mainly categorized into controllable and robustious factors. Since this bode is covers exclusively automobile sales, not just for a particular comp some(prenominal), it is refuge to say that the controllable factors can be ignored (product mix, prices etc.). However, uncontrollable factors have a big play on this forecast economy, interest rates, gas prices, industry trends etc. As discussed earlier, the first beat was to perform the two analytical approaches. These two approaches smoothed the data and found the underlying trend behind the noise. Table 1 and Table 2 in the Appendix shows the steps used to formulate this trend.

Actual sales, the moving average and exponential smoothing are shown in Chart 1 in the Appendix. Purely based on this, the moving average would predict the March 12 forecast to be 535,662 where as the exponential smoothing would predict it to be 574,439. The automotive industry bases the sales predictions on the 3Cs Cash, faith and confidence (www.autoobserver.com). It is a known that our economy is down. However, the unemployment rate is lessen and it seems that the confidence is increasing. Having said all that, this factor itself has not changed any more than what is already accounted for in the model. The biggest factor, it appears, is the escalating gas prices... If you want to get a full essay, order it on our website: Ordercustompaper.com

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